Can Trump actually win?

By Tom Quiner

I believe Hillary Clinton could win the election in an epic landslide.

I also believe that Donald Trump could win the election in a epic landslide.

This is the most volatile election cycle in my lifetime with the possible exception of 1968.

Anything could happen.

Nothing would surprise me. I wouldn’t even be shocked (although I would be surprised) if events conspired to remove either Trump or Clinton from the ballot come November.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Hillary at this point. She has the money and the machine to get out the vote and demonize her opponent.

To simplify the Electoral College this cycle, The Donald must win Florida and Ohio or he loses.

Right now he is up by +.3 in Florida and down by -1 in Ohio.

If Trump is able to win these key states and steal Pennsylvania from Democrats, he’ll likely win the election. He has more appeal to blue collar white voters in Pennsylvania than recent Republican candidates. Right now he trails Hillary by -3.2 points in the Keystone state. But nationally, he has moved ahead in the RCP average by +.2.

Hillary spent millions in Ohio a couple of weeks ago in negative ads in an attempt to destroy Trump, and she actually lost ground to him.

Hmmm. I’d be worried if I were Ms. Clinton.


  1. Tiffinay Compiano on July 25, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    Republicans are good losers. We’re supposed to be highly educated and intelligent, and we can’t even stay. Focused enough to get behind our nominee! #adhdparty

    • quinersdiner on July 25, 2016 at 1:35 pm

      Thanks for weighing in Tiffinay. I know you like The Donald more than I. Tell me what you like.

  2. […] In my previous post, I queried, “Can Trump actually win?” […]

  3. oarubio on June 7, 2017 at 10:47 am

    And now we know that your prerequisites for a Trump win came true!

    • quinersdiner on June 8, 2017 at 8:41 am

      It was interesting re-reading this blogpost from last July. Thanks for commenting!