Handicapping the South Carolina primary

By Tom Quiner

How do you predict an upcoming vote?

The conventional approach is by polling a representative sample of the electorate. However, the art and science of polling seems to be getting increasingly unreliable.

There’s another approach: talk to a bookmaker. See who people are actually betting on with real money.

By that standard, Donald Trump is looking like a very good bet, according to Paul Krishnamurty, who is a professional political gambler in Great Britain. He is touring the U.S. this election cycle and reporting for Politico.

According to Mr. Krishnamurty, Donald Trump has 86% odds of winning South Carolina; Cruz 12%; and Rubio only 7%.

Marco Rubio’s fortunes began to plummet following the New Hampshire debate. Before that fateful debate, bettors gave Mr. Rubio a 58% chance to win the nomination. By the time the primary was done, they only gave him a 20% chance.

You can read more here on this interesting approach to handicapping elections.