By Tom Quiner

How do you predict an upcoming vote?

The conventional approach is by polling a representative sample of the electorate. However, the art and science of polling seems to be getting increasingly unreliable.

There’s another approach: talk to a bookmaker. See who people are actually betting on with real money.

By that standard, Donald Trump is looking like a very good bet, according to Paul Krishnamurty, who is a professional political gambler in Great Britain. He is touring the U.S. this election cycle and reporting for Politico.

According to Mr. Krishnamurty, Donald Trump has 86% odds of winning South Carolina; Cruz 12%; and Rubio only 7%.

Marco Rubio’s fortunes began to plummet following the New Hampshire debate. Before that fateful debate, bettors gave Mr. Rubio a 58% chance to win the nomination. By the time the primary was done, they only gave him a 20% chance.

You can read more here on this interesting approach to handicapping elections.

3 Comments

  1. Shawn Pavlik on February 15, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    If I could bet on Cruz 9 to 1, which is about 12%, I would definitely bet a tenspot on that one. Recent polls have shown some tightening of the race, and I think that he could pull off the upset as he did in Iowa.

    • quinersdiner on February 16, 2016 at 6:41 am

      Anyone but Trump!

      • Shawn Pavlik on February 16, 2016 at 3:09 pm

        Yep…I would even take Kasich over Trump…don’t care for Kasich, but Trump is not a conservative at all. His celebrity is the only thing him votes.

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