Insiders vs. outsiders in the Republican polls

By Tom Quiner

Outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to lead beltway insiders Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for the Republican nomination.

In Iowa, here’s how they stack up:

TRUMP: 24.0

CARSON: 23.5

RUBIO: 12.8

CRUZ: 12.3

In New Hampshire, things look at little different in the RCP average polling data:

TRUMP: 27.5

CARSON: 13.8

RUBIO: 10.8


BUSH: 7.8

CRUZ: 7.0

This blog believes the race will come down to a Rubio/Cruz battle. However, Trump and Carson have demonstrated surprising staying power. If they perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire, anything is possible.




  1. abcinsc on November 9, 2015 at 4:44 pm

    Outsiders and Senators: It’s easy to link Trump and Carson as outsiders (they are), but their policy proposals are very different (i.e. immigration and medicare to name two). Also, it’s easy to link Rubio and Cruz as Senators, but they too are very different (Rubio is the GOPe amnesty choice and Cruz is the anti Washington Political Cartel choice). Rubio is a go-along-to-get-along Establishment type; Cruz is a stand-alone, stand-up guy on principle. Personally, I think a Trump/Cruz ticket would be unbeatable.

    • quinersdiner on November 10, 2015 at 9:19 am

      Interesting perspective, Art. I don’t see either Rubio or Cruz the same as you. Rubio was the Tea Party candidate in Florida. His immigration plan was not unreasonable. He backed away from it when it become obvious that Obama could not be trusted to enforce the law as written. I don’t believe Trump is the least bit electable, and I’m dubious about Cruz’s chances. I think Rubio is THE most electable Republican running. He is a good conservative.

      • abcinsc on November 10, 2015 at 9:48 am

        We’ll see. God bless.